The Federal Government is finalising work on the National Development Plan 2026-2030 under which it is projecting that its debt-service-to-revenue ratio may fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 percent by 2030, the Minister of State Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, has said.
The Minister, who disclosed this in her keynote address at the 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar, organised by DataPro Limited, on Thursday also revealed that, “under the NDP 2026-2030 proposal, public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030.”
The event, which was themed: “Achieving Investment-Grade Rating By 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria,” saw the Minister sharing some perspectives on country’s sovereign credit rating ambitions and what she described as “the broader development objectives of the National Development Plan 2026–2030.”
According to her, sovereign credit ratings go beyond being assessments of nations’ ability to meet their financial obligations as they also reflect investor confidence in a country’s economic institutions, policy environment and capacity to attract and sustain long-term capital.
“Credit ratings can influence borrowing costs, investment decisions and access to international financing for governments and businesses,” the Minister added.
Noting that the NDP 2026–2030 “provides a framework for building a more diversified, resilient and competitive Nigerian economy,” she said that the Plan’s “preferred development scenario envisages nominal economic output approaching $1 trillion by 2030,” adding that, “This ambition extends beyond GDP expansion; it seeks to strengthen productive capacity, attract investment, generate employment and improve the welfare of Nigerians.”
She further stated that “the pursuit of investment-grade sovereign credit quality and the implementation of the National Development Plan are mutually reinforcing, adding that, “both require sound public finances, macroeconomic stability, improved infrastructure, stronger institutions and increased productivity.”
Thus, according to the Minister, in order to ensure that the country achieves investment-grade rating by 2030, “under the NDP 2026-2030 proposal, public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030, while the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio is projected to fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent.”
She, however, stated that “these remain Plan projections, dependent on economic growth, prudent borrowing and effective fiscal management,” adding that “Nigeria will continue to strengthen debt management, manage refinancing risks and deepen domestic capital markets.”
She also disclosed that under the NDP 2026–2030, “government revenue is projected to rise from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030.”
However, she said that the achievement of these projections “will depend on effective reforms and improved collection efficiency,” adding that, “revenue mobilization must be matched by expenditure efficiency. Public resources should increasingly support infrastructure, human capital, healthcare, education and economic diversification.”
Similarly, she stated that the NDP 2026–2030 projects capital expenditure to account for 57.43 per cent of total government expenditure by 2030, compared with 36.03 per cent in 2025.
“Under the NDP 2026-2030, real GDP growth is projected to increase from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent in 2030, averaging 7.79 per cent over the Plan period. Gross capital formation is projected to rise to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, with the private sector expected to account for approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment,” the Minister further said.
She commended DataPro Limited for organising the event and, “for sustaining its efforts to deepen awareness of the significance of credit ratings to economic development, investment and financial stability.”
In his opening remarks, the Founder, DataPro Ltd., Abimbola Adeseyoju, said that sovereign credit ratings serve as a primary gateway to international capital markets, noting that they dictate the flow of investment, influence cost of funds, and determine how effectively markets can fund infrastructure, industrialisation, and sustainable growth.
He reiterated the company’s commitment to providing “transparent, actionable and credible market intelligence that bridges the gap between capital seekers and investors.”
He stated: “We believe that Africa’s journey towards investment-grade status is achievable through deliberate policy execution, sound market infrastructure and robust cross-border collaboration to provide transparent, actionable and credible market intelligence that bridges the gap between capital seekers and investors.”
